Policy Analyses in International Economics 98
by Peter A. Petri
and Michael G. Plummer
and Fan Zhai
While global trade negotiations remain stalled, two tracks of trade negotiations in the Asia-Pacific—the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and a parallel Asian track—could generate momentum for renewed liberalization and provide pathways to region-wide free trade. This book investigates what these trade negotiations could mean to the world economy. Petri, Plummer, and Zhai estimate that world income would rise by $295 billion per year on the TPP track, by $766 billion if both tracks are successful, and by $1.9 trillion if the tracks ultimately combine to yield region-wide free trade. They find that the tracks are competitive initially but their strategic implications appear to be constructive: the agreements would generate incentives for enlargement and mutual progress and, over time, for region-wide consolidation. The authors conclude that the crucial importance of Asia-Pacific integration argues for an early conclusion of the TPP negotiations, but without jeopardizing the prospects for region-wide or even global agreements based on it in the future.
>> View updated research reports, results, and data on the authors' website, Asia-Pacific Trade.
Selected chapters and sections are provided for preview only.
1. Introduction [pdf]
2. How and Why the Trans-Pacific Partnership Became a Priority
3. Analytical Approach
4. Economic Implications of the Trans-Pacific and Asian Tracks [pdf]
5. Dynamics of the Trans-Pacific and Asian Tracks
6. National Economic Interests [pdf]
Appendix A The Computable General Equilibrium Model
Appendix B Baseline Projections
Appendix C Scoring Provisions in Asia-Pacific Agreements
Appendix D Quantifying the Trade Effects of Agreements
Appendix E Quantifying the Investment Effects of Agreements
Appendix F Model Sensitivity
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ISBN paper 978-0-88132-664-2
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