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The North Korean economy cannot sustain its population. Absent fundamental economic reforms, it will never be able to do so. Hence North Korea will require sizable external support for the foreseeable future. South Korea, China, Japan, and the United States have been willing to provide this support because they fear a collapse in the North or, even worse, a lashing out that would unleash war on the peninsula and put millions of people in Asia in jeopardy—including thousands of US troops stationed in South Korea and Japan. The status quo is thus closer to extortion than charity.
In this volume, a diverse group of contributors analyze prospective developments on the Korean peninsula. The authors first address the three broad strategic possibilities of war, collapse, and gradual adjustment. Four immediate policy issues are then considered: the current economic conditions and policies in the North, the food crisis, the nuclear energy/nuclear weapons issue, and the possibility of large-scale refugee flows. Finally, the volume considers several longer-run issues concerning the inevitable integration of the peninsula: the potential relevance of the German experience, the costs and benefits of economic unification between North and South Korea, and the possible role of the international financial institutions in funding the new arrangement. The volume concludes with recommendations for policymakers, especially in the United States and South Korea, from the preceding analyses.
Contents
Preface
Acknowledgments
1. Introduction 129.7KB
I. Three Basic Scenarios
2. The Likelihood and the Implications of a North Korean Attack on the South 200.4KB
Kyongmann Jeon
3. North Korea: All Roads Lead to Collapse: All the More Reason to Engage Pyongyang 185.5KB
Aidan Foster-Carter
4. Managing Intergration on the Korean Peninsula: The Positive and Normative Case for Gradualism With or Without Integration 180.0KB
Scott Snyder
II. Immediate Issues
5. The Food Economy: The Catalyst for Collapse? 273.4KB
Heather Smith
6. North Korean Energy Sector: Current Status and Scenarios for 2000 and 2005 317.1KB
David F. Von Hippel and Peter Hayes
7. Refugee Issues Relation to Three Scenarios for the Future of the Korean Peninsula 193.0KB
Jeffrey S. Pilkington
III. (Slightly) Longer Run Economic Issues
8. The Current North Korean Economy 240.6KB
Anthony Michell
9. Korean Unification: Lessons from Germany 232.3KB
Holger Wolf
10. Calibrating the Costs (and Benefits) of Unification 176.3KB
Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Ligang Liu
11. Thinking About the World Bank and North Korea 221.0KB
Danny M. Leipziger
IV. Implications for Domestic Policy
12. US Leadership in the Rebuilding of the North Korean Economy 186.7KB
K. A. Namkung
13. South Korea: Preparations Awaiting Unification—The Political Components 191.3KB
David I. Steinberg
14. Preparing for the Economic Integration of Two Koreas: Policy Challenges to South Korea 218.2KB
Soogil Young, Chang-Jae Lee, and Hyoungsoo Zang
References
Index
